MADRID, March 26 (Xinhua) -- Spanish exports to the United Kingdom will be one of the elements most affected by the process of the UK leaving the European Union (EU), John Wetherell, professor of economics at the EAE Business School, told Xinhua.
Just what 'Brexit' will finally look like has still to be agreed by the British Parliament, after the original Brexit agreement Prime Minister Theresa May reached with the EU has been rejected twice by the House of Commons. Frantic debates are now taking place to try and decide the final form of the agreement, but the thing that does look certain is that Spain will be affected one way or another.
"Following the economic crisis of 2008, Spain has become a country which exports a lot and it needs foreign markets in order to grow," said Wetherell, explaining that the agricultural and automobile sector would be among the most affected.
Wetherell also highlighted that the performance of sterling in the wake of Brexit could affect the numbers of British tourists visiting Spain. Around 17 million Britons visited Spain in 2018, more than from anywhere else in the world, and a fall in the value of the pound could see that number drop significantly.
"If the pound falls, Spain will suffer as tourists will go to Turkey or to destinations with currencies weaker than the euro," he commented.
Last week saw the Bank of Spain predict that if the UK left the EU without a deal it would cost Spain around 9 billion euros over five years, taking around 0.8 percent off its gross domestic product or GDP. Meanwhile, if the UK leaves with an agreement, Spain's economy would be much less affected, with just 0.2 percent coming off GDP.
Wetherell was optimistic that despite warnings to the contrary, Brexit would not have a disastrous effect on the British economy either.
"The UK economy has not been badly affected so far by the uncertainty caused by Brexit and this is due to internal consumption... The UK would not be as badly affected as Spain, which needs foreign markets and the UK is an important market for Spain," he said.
The professor did warn that the Britain was "very very close to leaving the EU without an agreement," but he is confident of "a last-hour agreement to save the situation."
Monday saw the House of Commons vote to take control of the Brexit process from Theresa May, but members of parliament hold very different views about what should happen now. Opinions in the UK Parliament range from preferring a no-deal Brexit to supporting May's deal, holding a second Brexit referendum or even cancelling Brexit completely.
There are even rumors that May could offer to resign in a last ditch attempt to bring Conservative Party opponents into line to get her deal passed and it is safe to say that nobody knows what the coming days will bring. (1 euro currently equals to 1.13 U.S. dollars)
